Arches — Live demo

Arches

Explain the conversion drop

Connected: Meta logo

Meta

Webflow

Vercel

PostHog

This Meta campaign drives clicks but almost no signups, and the blended funnel only looks slightly soft so no one can explain it. Investigate and tell me why.

I'll run a full autonomous investigation across PostHog, the Webflow landing page, and the Next.js app on Vercel. The blended numbers are almost certainly hiding the problem, so my plan is: scope the exact campaign cohort, trace the journey end to end, then segment until the break reveals itself. I'll narrate what I find as I go.

Go for it. Send the findings to me directly. Leadership thinks it's creative fatigue and I don't buy it.

Investigate

Early read: clicks are fine, but the cohort craters at cta_click → signup_start — people tap the CTA and never reach a working form. That's not creative fatigue; fatigue shows up as fewer clicks, not a cliff after the click. Let me find which segment is collapsing.

Root cause: it was never creative fatigue

The meta-hero experiment (hero-v3) breaks on iOS Safari — the page looks loaded, but the signup form never becomes clickable. Meta traffic is ~70% mobile Safari, so the campaign funnels its audience straight into a broken page. Desktop and Chrome were fine, which is why the blended dashboard only looked 'slightly soft.'

Proposed fix: route mobile campaign traffic to the standard signup page and patch the broken hero component. Want me to validate that the fix actually recovers conversion before anyone ships it?

Yes. Prove it on a preview before anything touches production.

Test

Fix validated

Hydration error is gone, the signup form renders, and simulated conversion on mobile Safari goes from 0.8% to ~5.6% — in line with mobile Chrome. No regression on desktop.

Good. Now set something up to watch for this kind of hidden segment drop going forward. I don't want to find the next one by accident.

Go live

Liverun · meta-hero-drop

Conversion Investigator

Daily + on-demand

Scope cohort

Trace funnel

Segment

Replays + Web-Vitals

Root cause

Scheduled daily watchdog · 6 sources joined · every step traced

Investigation closed. The drop was hiding inside mobile traffic — a broken experiment hero on iOS Safari. The fix is proven on preview, and a daily watchdog now guards against the next silent segment drop. Everything's in the writeup.

Arches is ready for instructions

conversion_investigation.md

Investigation: Meta campaign conversion drop

Generated byrun · meta-hero-drop

Runrun_4cc1e9

GeneratedJun 11, 2026 · 14:31 UTC

Duration24m 36s

Tool calls19

Statuscompleted with warnings

Workflows: run/meta-hero-drop · trace/funnel-join

The campaign's conversion drop was never creative fatigue. The meta-hero experiment (hero-v3) throws a hydration error on iOS Safari that blanks the signup form. Meta traffic for this campaign is ~70% mobile Safari, so the campaign funnels its own audience into a broken page. Desktop and mobile Chrome convert normally, which is why the blended dashboard only looked slightly soft.

Funnel evidence — cohort co_8841 (n = 12,480)

Segment	lp_view → signup	Verdict
Desktop	6.1%	Healthy
Mobile Chrome	4.9%	Healthy
Mobile Safari	0.8%	Collapsed — root cause

214 session replays in the failing segment share the same pattern: tap on #create-account, no response, rage-clicks, exit. Vercel error logs confirm the mechanism:

Error: Hydration failed because the initial UI does not
match what was rendered on the server.
  at HeavyHero (hero-v3)
  ua: iOS Safari 17.x · route: /?v=meta-hero
  occurrences: 1,972 (7d) · first seen: May 29, 02:14 UTC

Fix validation (Vercel preview)

Patchfix/hero-v3-hydration

Hydration errors0 (was 1,972/7d)

Simulated conversion5.6% on mobile Safari

Desktop regressionNone

Validated againstReplayed real cohort, not synthetic

Recommendations

Ship the hydration patch and route mobile campaign traffic to the standard signup until hero-v3 passes device QA.
Estimated recovery: ~430 signups/mo at current spend, reclaiming traffic the blended dashboard was hiding.
conversion-watchdog now runs daily at 07:00 UTC and escalates only when a segment collapses while the blend looks fine — the exact failure mode that hid this one.